Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit
[1];
[2];
[3];
[3]
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA
- National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Boulder Colorado USA
Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1344353
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-15-27476
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 3; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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