Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.
- Research Organization:
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AR0000702
- OSTI ID:
- 1369629
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1341322
- Journal Information:
- Physical Review Letters, Vol. 118, Issue 4; ISSN 0031-9007
- Publisher:
- American Physical Society (APS)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Similar Records
Advanced simulation for analysis of critical infrastructure : abstract cascades, the electric power grid, and Fedwire.
A Study of the Impact of Peak Demand on Increasing Vulnerability of Cascading Failures to Extreme Contingency Events