What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

Journal Article · Tue Nov 01 04:00:00 EDT 2016 · Environmental Modelling and Software

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016· OSTI ID:1339823

; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1339823

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--110763; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Environmental Modelling and Software, Journal Name: Environmental Modelling and Software Journal Issue: C Vol. 85; ISSN 1364-8152

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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