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How will SOA change in the future?: SOA IN THE FUTURE

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067137· OSTI ID:1337245
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michigan USA; Now at Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA
  2. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michigan USA
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) plays a significant role in the Earth system by altering its radiative balance. Here we use an Earth system model coupled with an explicit SOA formation module to estimate the response of SOA concentrations to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and human land use in the future. We find that climate change is the major driver for SOA change under the representative concentration pathways for the 8.5 future scenario. Climate change increases isoprene emission rate by 18% with the effect of temperature increases outweighing that of the CO2 inhibition effect. Annual mean global SOA mass is increased by 25% as a result of climate change. However, anthropogenic emissions and land use change decrease SOA. The net effect is that future global SOA burden in 2100 is nearly the same as that of the present day. The SOA concentrations over the Northern Hemisphere are predicted to decline in the future due to the control of sulfur emissions.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1337245
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--119106; KP1703020
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 43; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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