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Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Journal Article · · Nature Climate Change
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054· OSTI ID:1336567
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  1. University of Florida
  2. New Zealand Forest Reserach Institute, Rotorua, New Zealand
  3. University of Eastern Finland
  4. University of Florida, Gainesville
  5. University of South Bohemia, Czech Republic
  6. University of Exeter, UK
  7. ORNL
  8. Michigan State University, East Lansing
  9. University of Hamburg, Germany
  10. University of California, Irvine
  11. National Park Service
  12. Marine Biological Laboratory
  13. University of Alaska Fairbanks
  14. University of Guelph, Canada
  15. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
  16. U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO
+ Show Author Affiliations

Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systemsreleasingCO2 andCH4 for a given amount of C.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1336567
Journal Information:
Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 6; ISSN 1758-678X
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements journal April 2019
Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation journal July 2019
Impact of Warming on Greenhouse Gas Production and Microbial Diversity in Anoxic Peat From a Sphagnum-Dominated Bog (Grand Rapids, Minnesota, United States) journal April 2019
The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates: Climate-Hydrates Interactions journal February 2017
Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake journal March 2018
Short and Long-Term Controls on Active Layer and Permafrost Carbon Turnover Across the Arctic journal February 2018
Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World journal March 2018
Geomorphic Controls on Floodplain Soil Organic Carbon in the Yukon Flats, Interior Alaska, From Reach to River Basin Scales journal March 2018
Depth-Resolved Physicochemical Characteristics of Active Layer and Permafrost Soils in an Arctic Polygonal Tundra Region journal April 2018
Effects of forest fires on the permafrost environment in the northern Da Xing'anling (Hinggan) mountains, Northeast China journal July 2019
Methane and Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions in Eastern Siberia book January 2019
Redox and temperature-sensitive changes in microbial communities and soil chemistry dictate greenhouse gas loss from thawed permafrost journal July 2017
Forest fires in Canadian permafrost region: the combined effects of fire and permafrost dynamics on soil organic matter quality journal March 2019
Individual and interactive effects of ocean acidification, global warming, and UV radiation on phytoplankton journal November 2017
Exploring near-surface ground ice distribution in patterned-ground tundra: correlations with topography, soil and vegetation journal August 2019
Significant Floodplain Soil Organic Carbon Storage Along a Large High‐Latitude River and its Tributaries journal February 2019
Using Persistent Scatterer Interferometry to Map and Quantify Permafrost Thaw Subsidence: A Case Study of Eboling Mountain on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau journal October 2018
Using Stable Carbon Isotopes of Seasonal Ecosystem Respiration to Determine Permafrost Carbon Loss journal January 2019
Nutrient Release From Permafrost Thaw Enhances CH 4 Emissions From Arctic Tundra Wetlands journal June 2019
Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change journal July 2019
Pathways for Ecological Change in Canadian High Arctic Wetlands Under Rapid Twentieth Century Warming journal May 2019
Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High‐Latitude Mire Complex journal October 2019
Determinants of carbon release from the active layer and permafrost deposits on the Tibetan Plateau journal October 2016
Stability of peatland carbon to rising temperatures journal December 2016
Decadal soil carbon accumulation across Tibetan permafrost regions journal May 2017
Tundra microbial community taxa and traits predict decomposition parameters of stable, old soil organic carbon journal August 2019
Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands journal August 2018
Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost journal March 2018
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region journal October 2019
Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks journal July 2018
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release journal September 2018
Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra journal July 2019
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw journal February 2020
Increased nitrous oxide emissions from Arctic peatlands after permafrost thaw journal May 2017
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change journal March 2018
Spatial variation in vegetation productivity trends, fire disturbance, and soil carbon across arctic-boreal permafrost ecosystems journal September 2016
Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle journal February 2018
Respiration of aged soil carbon during fall in permafrost peatlands enhanced by active layer deepening following wildfire but limited following thermokarst journal August 2018
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 journal April 2019
Exploring the oxygen sensitivity of wetland soil carbon mineralization journal January 2019
Warming alters surface soil organic matter composition despite unchanged carbon stocks in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem journal April 2020
Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide journal December 2016
Nonlinear CO 2 flux response to 7 years of experimentally induced permafrost thaw journal March 2017
Deep peat warming increases surface methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a black spruce-dominated ombrotrophic bog journal July 2017
Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw journal February 2019
Drainage enhances modern soil carbon contribution but reduces old soil carbon contribution to ecosystem respiration in tundra ecosystems journal February 2019
Soil Viruses Are Underexplored Players in Ecosystem Carbon Processing journal October 2018
Critical Zone Science in the Anthropocene: Opportunities for biogeographic and ecological theory and praxis to drive earth science integration journal July 2019
Projected changes of alpine grassland carbon dynamics in response to climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios journal July 2019
Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements text January 2019
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release text January 2018
Temperature and moisture effects on greenhouse gas emissions from deep active-layer boreal soils journal January 2016
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks journal January 2017
Impacts of temperature and soil characteristics on methane production and oxidation in Arctic tundra journal January 2018
Temperature and moisture effects on greenhouse gas emissions from deep active-layer boreal soils posted_content June 2016
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions journal January 2017
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