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Title: Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

Abstract

PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makersmore » and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Laboratories
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1326634
Report Number(s):
PARAT v.1.0; 004939IBMPC00
SCR #2032
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Software
Software Revision:
00
Software Package Number:
004939
Software CPU:
IBMPC
Source Code Available:
No
Other Software Info:
The PARAT tool is intended to be used by a decision makers, risk assessors, and public health officials to plan and possibly execute the response, restoration, and recovery activities following a release of a biological agent such as Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax. This may provide a unique capability that has not been available to date, which could save considerable time and cost associated with recovery operations.
Related Software:
Oracle's Crystal Ball third-party add-on module to Excel
Country of Publication:
United States

Citation Formats

Knowlton, Robert, and Hubbard, Josh. Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0. Computer software. Vers. 00. USDOE. 14 Jul. 2016. Web.
Knowlton, Robert, & Hubbard, Josh. (2016, July 14). Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0 (Version 00) [Computer software].
Knowlton, Robert, and Hubbard, Josh. Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0. Computer software. Version 00. July 14, 2016.
@misc{osti_1326634,
title = {Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0, Version 00},
author = {Knowlton, Robert and Hubbard, Josh},
abstractNote = {PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.},
doi = {},
year = {Thu Jul 14 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Thu Jul 14 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
note =
}

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