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Novel use of flu surveillance data: Evaluating potential of sentinel populations for early detection of influenza outbreaks

Journal Article · · PLoS ONE
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality each year, with 2–8% of weekly outpatient visits around the United States for influenza-like-illness (ILI) during the peak of the season. Effective use of existing flu surveillance data allows officials to understand and predict current flu outbreaks and can contribute to reductions in influenza morbidity and mortality. Previous work used the 2009–2010 influenza season to investigate the possibility of using existing military and civilian surveillance systems to improve early detection of flu outbreaks. Results suggested that civilian surveillance could help predict outbreak trajectory in local military installations. To further test that hypothesis, we compare pairs of civilian and military outbreaks in seven locations between 2000 and 2013. We find no predictive relationship between outbreak peaks or time series of paired outbreaks. This larger study does not find evidence to support the hypothesis that civilian data can be used as sentinel surveillance for military installations. We additionally investigate the effect of modifying the ILI case definition between the standard Department of Defense definition, a more specific definition proposed in literature, and confirmed Influenza A. We find that case definition heavily impacts results. In conclusion, this study thus highlights the importance of careful selection of case definition, and appropriate consideration of case definition in the interpretation of results.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)
Sponsoring Organization:
Defense Threat Reduction Agency; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1321779
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-16-22898
Journal Information:
PLoS ONE, Journal Name: PLoS ONE Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 11; ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (9)

Surveillance of 16 respiratory viruses in patients with influenza-like illness in Nanjing, China journal October 2012
Pacific-wide simplified syndromic surveillance for early warning of outbreaks journal August 2012
Molecular identification of adenoviruses associated with respiratory infection in Egypt from 2003 to 2010 journal January 2014
Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak journal January 2011
Multiple Estimates of Transmissibility for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic Based on Influenza-like-Illness Data from Small US Military Populations journal May 2013
Age- and Influenza Activity-Stratified Case Definitions of Influenza-Like Illness: Experience from Hospital-Based Influenza Surveillance in South Korea journal January 2014
Ebola Virus Disease — Sierra Leone and Guinea, August 2015 journal September 2015
Detection and Serotyping of Human Adenoviruses from Patients with Influenza-Like Illness in Mongolia journal January 2012
Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in the United States journal September 2004

Cited By (1)

An Integrated Influenza Surveillance Framework Based on National Influenza-Like Illness Incidence and Multiple Hospital Electronic Medical Records for Early Prediction of Influenza Epidemics: Design and Evaluation journal January 2019

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Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Biological Science