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Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

Journal Article · · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Seattle, WA (United States)

Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by -1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by -2.2 to -5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and -1.3 to -4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1314411
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--111934
Journal Information:
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online), Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online) Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 20; ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union (EGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (10)

Projected Increase in Hydropower Production in India under Climate Change journal August 2018
Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change journal February 2020
The influence of groundwater representation on hydrological simulation and its assessment using satellite‐based water storage variation journal February 2019
Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation journal January 2018
A Spatially Explicit Assessment of Growing Water Stress in China From the Past to the Future journal September 2019
Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation—multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri–Mississippi and Green–Colorado journal April 2017
Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations journal February 2017
Non-stationary hydropower generation projections constrained by environmental and electricity grid operations over the western United States journal July 2018
Operational Water Withdrawal and Consumption Factors for Electricity Generation Technology in China—A Literature Review journal April 2018
Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower in Yunnan, China journal January 2020

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