Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Leung, L. Ruby; Dominguez, Francina

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00355.1

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

Journal Article · Tue Apr 07 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00355.1· OSTI ID:1286712

Mei, Rui ^[1]; Ashfaq, Moetasim ^[1]; Rastogi, Deeksha ^[1]; Leung, L. Ruby ^[2]; Dominguez, Francina ^[3]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division. Climate Change Science Inst.
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal) and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Contributing Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1286712

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1182905

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 28; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Response of the Hydrological Cycle in Asian Monsoon Systems to Global Warming Through the Lens of Water Vapor Wave Activity Analysis Xue, Daokai; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078998	journal	November 2018
Choice of Irrigation Water Management Practice Affects Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Its Extremes Devanand, Anjana; Huang, Maoyi; Ashfaq, Moetasim Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083875	journal	August 2019

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