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Title: Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions aboutmore » the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. City Univ. (CUNY), NY (United States). Inst. for Demographic Research
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1275965
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1275966; OSTI ID: 1326675
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006704; CHE-1314040
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; spatial population; population projections; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Citation Formats

Jones, B., and O’Neill, B. C. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.
Jones, B., & O’Neill, B. C. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.
Jones, B., and O’Neill, B. C. Fri . "Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.
@article{osti_1275965,
title = {Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways},
author = {Jones, B. and O’Neill, B. C.},
abstractNote = {Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 15works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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