Markov chain decomposition of monthly rainfall into daily rainfall: Evaluation of climate change impact

Yoo, Chulsang; Lee, Jinwook; Ro, Yonghun

doi:10.1155/2016/7957490

Title: Markov chain decomposition of monthly rainfall into daily rainfall: Evaluation of climate change impact

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Advances in Meteorology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7957490· OSTI ID:1268267

Yoo, Chulsang ^[1]; Lee, Jinwook ^[1]; Ro, Yonghun ^[1]

Korea Univ., Seoul (Republic of Korea). School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering

This paper evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO₂) and 2x CO₂conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decrease in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Korea Univ., Seoul (Republic of Korea)

Sponsoring Organization:: Advanced Water Management Research Program - Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean Government; USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1268267

Journal Information:: Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2016; ISSN 1687-9309

Publisher:: HindawiCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 3 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (29)

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z	journal	August 2011
Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation NĚMec, J.; Schaake, J. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 27, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668209491113	journal	September 1982
Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods Schmidli, Jürg; Frei, Christoph; Vidale, Pier Luigi International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 26, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1287	journal	January 2006
Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in the Delaware rwer Basin McCabe, Gregory J.; Ayers, Mark A. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 25, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1989.tb01335.x	journal	December 1989
Simulation of the impacts of climate change on runoff and soil moisture in Australian catchments Chiew, F. H. S.; Whetton, P. H.; McMahon, T. A. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 167, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)02649-v	journal	May 1995
Hydrological effects of hypothetical climate change in the East River basin, Colorado, USA McCABE, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 40, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669509491417	journal	June 1995
Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change Singh, Pratap; Bengtsson, Lars Hydrological Processes, Vol. 18, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1468	journal	August 2004
Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models Jones, Roger N.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Boughton, Walter C. Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 29, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.001	journal	October 2006
Vegetation response to climate change on Jeju Island, South Korea, during the last deglaciation based on pollen record Chung, Chull-Hwan Geosciences Journal, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02913928	journal	June 2007
Multi-decadal Changes in Fish Communities Jeju Island in Relation to Climate Change Jung, Sukgeun; Ha, Seungmok; Na, Hanna Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 46, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5657/kfas.2013.0186	journal	April 2013
Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic changes Gleick, Peter H. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 88, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(86)90199-x	journal	November 1986
Modelling the Impacts of Climatic Change on Water Resources Wardlaw, R. B.; Hulme, M.; Stuck, A. Y. Water and Environment Journal, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.1996.tb00064.x	journal	October 1996
Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming Gan, Thian Yew Water Resources Research, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/89WR01379	journal	January 1990
Climatic Sensitivity of California Water Resources Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Sheer, Daniel P. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 117, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1991)117:1(108)	journal	January 1991
Sensitivity of Streamflow Simulation to Changes in Climatic Inputs Ng, H. Y. F.; Marsalek, J. Hydrology Research, Vol. 23, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.1992.0018	journal	August 1992
Use of a Stochastic Weather Generator in the Development of Climate Change Scenarios Semenov, Mikhail A.; Barrow, Elaine M. Climatic Change, Vol. 35, Issue 4, p. 397-414 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005342632279	journal	January 1997
A semi-parametric model for stochastic generation of multi-site daily rainfall exhibiting low-frequency variability Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, Ashish Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 335, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.11.011	journal	March 2007
Change in climate variability in the 21st century Rind, D.; Goldberg, R.; Ruedy, R. Climatic Change, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140173	journal	February 1989
Precipitation as a Chain-Dependent Process Katz, Richard W. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0671:PAACDP>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1977
A Stochastic Model ofn-Day Precipitation Todorovic, P.; Woolhiser, David A. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1975)014<0017:ASMODP>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 1975
A Model Fitting Analysis of Daily Rainfall Data Stern, R. D.; Coe, R. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 147, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2307/2981736	journal	January 1984
On the Proper Order of Markov Chain Model for Daily Precipitation Occurrence in the Contiguous United States Schoof, J. T.; Pryor, S. C. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1840.1	journal	September 2008
The mathematical structure of rainfall representations: 1. A review of the stochastic rainfall models Waymire, Ed; Gupta, Vijay K. Water Resources Research, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/wr017i005p01261	journal	October 1981
Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model Wilks, D. S. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 210, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(98)00186-3	journal	September 1998
Probabilistic representation of the temporal rainfall process by a modified Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses Model: Parameter estimation and validation Entekhabi, Dara; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Eagleson, Peter S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 25, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i002p00295	journal	February 1989
Scale considerations in the modeling of temporal rainfall Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Gupta, Vijay K.; Waymire, Ed Water Resources Research, Vol. 20, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/wr020i011p01611	journal	November 1984
Some models for rainfall based on stochastic point processes Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Cox, D. R.; Isham, V. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Vol. 410, Issue 1839, p. 269-288 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1987.0039	journal	April 1987
A point process model for rainfall: further developments Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Cox, David Roxbee; Isham, Valerie Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Vol. 417, Issue 1853, p. 283-298 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1988.0061	journal	June 1988
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012

Similar Records

Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: Implications for extreme rainfall events

Journal Article · Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1992 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1268267

Gordon, H B; Whetton, P H; Pittock, A B

A Bivariate Mixed Distribution with a Heavy-tailed Component and its Application to Single-site Daily Rainfall Simulation

Journal Article · Wed Feb 06 00:00:00 EST 2013 · Water Resources Research, 49(2):767-789 · OSTI ID:1268267

Singh, Vijay P.; Mishra, Ashok K.

Robust effects of cloud superparameterization on simulated daily rainfall intensity statistics across multiple versions of the C ommunity E arth S ystem M odel

Journal Article · Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · OSTI ID:1268267

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; Burt, Melissa A.; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
river-basin
water-resources
daily precipitation
temporal rainfall
sensitivity
model
simulation
colorado
variability
generation

Title: Markov chain decomposition of monthly rainfall into daily rainfall: Evaluation of climate change impact

Citation Formats

References (29)

Similar Records

Related Subjects