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Title: Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing

Journal Article · · Progress in Photovoltaics
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.2761· OSTI ID:1259257
 [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
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Abstract The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity‐normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity‐normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308; DE‐AC36‐08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1259257
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1400452
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5J00-65394
Journal Information:
Progress in Photovoltaics, Vol. 24, Issue 7; ISSN 1062-7995
Publisher:
WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 5 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (6)

Modeling the Cost and Minimum Sustainable Price of Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Manufacturing in the United States journal April 2013
Understanding Manufacturing Cost Influence on Future Trends in Silicon Photovoltaics journal November 2014
The capital intensity of photovoltaics manufacturing: barrier to scale and opportunity for innovation journal January 2015
Assessing the drivers of regional trends in solar photovoltaic manufacturing journal January 2013
Technology advances needed for photovoltaics to achieve widespread grid price parity: Widespread grid price parity for photovoltaics journal April 2016
Economics of future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing
  • Basore, Paul A.; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio
  • 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355620
conference June 2015

Cited By (2)

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA journal February 2018
Passivating contacts for crystalline silicon solar cells journal September 2019

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