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Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction

Journal Article · · Atmospheric Science Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.666· OSTI ID:1253036
 [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami FL USA
  2. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
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Abstract

Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.

Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0006806
OSTI ID:
1253036
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1253217
Journal Information:
Atmospheric Science Letters, Journal Name: Atmospheric Science Letters Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 17; ISSN 1530-261X
Publisher:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

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