Observed allocations of productivity and biomass, and turnover times in tropical forests are not accurately represented in CMIP5 Earth system models

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Koven, Charles D.; Riley, William J.; Knox, Ryan G.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064017

Title: Observed allocations of productivity and biomass, and turnover times in tropical forests are not accurately represented in CMIP5 Earth system models

Journal Article · Mon Jun 22 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064017· OSTI ID:1222425

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Koven, Charles D.; Riley, William J.; Knox, Ryan G.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

A significant fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is assimilated by tropical forests and stored as biomass, slowing the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Because different plant tissues have different functional roles and turnover times, predictions of carbon balance of tropical forests depend on how earth system models (ESMs) represent the dynamic allocation of productivity to different tree compartments. This study shows that observed allocation of productivity, biomass, and turnover times of main tree compartments (leaves, wood, and roots) are not accurately represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ESMs. In particular, observations indicate that biomass saturates with increasing productivity. In contrast, most models predict continuous increases in biomass with increases in productivity. This bias may lead to an over-prediction of carbon uptake in response to CO₂ or climate-driven changes in productivity. Compartment-specific productivity and biomass are useful benchmarks to assess terrestrial ecosystem model performance. Improvements in the predicted allocation patterns and turnover times by ESMs will reduce uncertainties in climate predictions.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1222425

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1238979; OSTI ID: 1512203

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Vol. 10 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 46 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (57)

The IGBP-DIS global 1km land cover data set, DISCover: First results Loveland, T. R.; Belward, A. S. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 18, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1080/014311697217099	journal	October 1997
Climate model genealogy: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Masson, D.; Knutti, R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046864	journal	April 2011
Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size Stephenson, N. L.; Das, A. J.; Condit, R. Nature, Vol. 507, Issue 7490 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12914	journal	January 2014
Spatial variability and controls over biomass stocks, carbon fluxes, and resource-use efficiencies across forest ecosystems Fernández-Martínez, Marcos; Vicca, Sara; Janssens, Ivan A. Trees, Vol. 28, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-013-0975-9	journal	January 2014
Markedly divergent estimates of Amazon forest carbon density from ground plots and satellites: Divergent forest carbon maps from plots & space Mitchard, Edward T. A.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Brienen, Roel J. W. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 23, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12168	journal	April 2014
The Structure, Distribution, and Biomass of the World's Forests Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Phillips, Oliver L. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol. 44, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135914	journal	November 2013
Above- and below-ground net primary productivity across ten Amazonian forests on contrasting soils Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Malhi, Y.; Metcalfe, D. B. Biogeosciences, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-2759-2009	journal	January 2009
Fine-root mortality rates in a temperate forest: estimates using radiocarbon data and numerical modeling Riley, W. J.; Gaudinski, J. B.; Torn, M. S. New Phytologist, Vol. 184, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02980.x	journal	October 2009
Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity Norby, R. J.; DeLucia, E. H.; Gielen, B. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0509478102	journal	December 2005
A comparison of plot-based satellite and Earth system model estimates of tropical forest net primary production: NPP IN TROPICAL FORESTS Cleveland, Cory C.; Taylor, Philip; Chadwick, K. Dana Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB005022	journal	May 2015
The productivity, metabolism and carbon cycle of tropical forest vegetation: Carbon cycle of tropical forests Malhi, Yadvinder Journal of Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01916.x	journal	December 2011
Basin-wide variations in Amazon forest structure and function are mediated by both soils and climate Quesada, C. A.; Phillips, O. L.; Schwarz, M. Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2203-2012	journal	January 2012
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Forest turnover rates follow global and regional patterns of productivity: Patterns in forest turnover rates Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mantgem, Phillip J. Ecology Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00746.x	journal	April 2005
Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event: WIND-DRIVEN TREE MORTALITY IN AMAZONIA Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043733	journal	August 2010
Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate Beer, C.; Reichstein, M.; Tomelleri, E. Science, Vol. 329, Issue 5993 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984	journal	July 2010
Measuring and modeling the spectrum of fine-root turnover times in three forests using isotopes, minirhizotrons, and the Radix model: FINE ROOT TURNOVER TIMES Gaudinski, Julia B.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 24, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003649	journal	September 2010
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Climate Relations in Eight CMIP5 Earth System Models Shao, Pu; Zeng, Xubin; Sakaguchi, Koichi Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00831.1	journal	November 2013
Global carbon budget 2014 Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Earth System Science Data Discussions, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014	journal	January 2014
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R. A.; Fang, J. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6045 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201609	journal	July 2011
Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava Nature, Vol. 514, Issue 7521 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13731	journal	September 2014
Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents Saatchi, S. S.; Harris, N. L.; Brown, S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1019576108	journal	May 2011
Forest Disturbance by Large Blowdowns in the Brazilian Amazon Nelson, Bruce W.; Kapos, Valerie; Adams, John B. Ecology, Vol. 75, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/1941742	journal	April 1994
Causes and implications of the correlation between forest productivity and tree mortality rates Stephenson, Nathan L.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Bunn, Andrew G. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 81, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1077.1	journal	November 2011
The allocation of ecosystem net primary productivity in tropical forests Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher; Galbraith, David Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 366, Issue 1582 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0062	journal	November 2011
Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0103711	journal	August 2014
An Improved Canopy Integration Scheme for a Land Surface Model with Prognostic Canopy Structure Thornton, Peter E.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4222.1	journal	August 2007
Fine root dynamics for forests on contrasting soils in the Colombian Amazon Jiménez, E. M.; Moreno, F. H.; Peñuela, M. C. Biogeosciences, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-2809-2009	journal	January 2009
Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps Baccini, A.; Goetz, S. J.; Walker, W. S. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1354	journal	January 2012
Regional and seasonal patterns of litterfall in tropical South America Chave, J.; Navarrete, D.; Almeida, S. Biogeosciences, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-43-2010	journal	January 2010
Hyperdominance in the Amazonian Tree Flora ter Steege, H.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Sabatier, D. Science, Vol. 342, Issue 6156 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1243092	journal	October 2013
Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO ₂ enrichment sites De Kauwe, Martin G.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Zaehle, Sönke New Phytologist, Vol. 203, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12847	journal	May 2014
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Friedlingstein, Pierre; Meinshausen, Malte; Arora, Vivek K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1	journal	January 2014
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50256	journal	March 2013
Some aspects of ecophysiological and biogeochemical responses of tropical forests to atmospheric change Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Silver, Whendee L. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 359, Issue 1443 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1424	journal	March 2004
Relationships among net primary productivity, nutrients and climate in tropical rain forest: a pan-tropical analysis: Nutrients, climate and tropical NPP Cleveland, Cory C.; Townsend, Alan R.; Taylor, Philip Ecology Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01658.x	journal	July 2011
Forest response to increased disturbance in the Central Amazon and comparison to Western Amazonian forests Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Collins, W. D. Biogeosciences Discussions, Vol. 11, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-7721-2014	journal	January 2014
Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients Michaletz, Sean T.; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J. Nature, Vol. 512, Issue 7512 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13470	journal	July 2014
Comment on "Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009" Samanta, A.; Costa, M. H.; Nunes, E. L. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6046 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1199048	journal	August 2011
Detection of subpixel treefall gaps with Landsat imagery in Central Amazon forests Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Marra, Daniel M. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 115, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.07.015	journal	December 2011
MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets Friedl, Mark A.; Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Tan, Bin Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 114, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.016	journal	January 2010
The global relationship between forest productivity and biomass Keeling, Helen C.; Phillips, Oliver L. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 16, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00314.x	journal	September 2007
Large seasonal swings in leaf area of Amazon rainforests Myneni, R. B.; Yang, W.; Nemani, R. R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0611338104	journal	March 2007
The linkages between photosynthesis, productivity, growth and biomass in lowland Amazonian forests Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher E.; Goldsmith, Gregory R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12859	journal	March 2015
An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs Negrón Juárez, Robinson I.; da Rocha, Humberto Ribeiro; e. Figueira, Adelaine Michela Silva Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 149, Issue 6-7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.11.012	journal	June 2009
Tropical forest wood production: a cross-continental comparison Banin, Lindsay; Lewis, Simon L.; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela Journal of Ecology, Vol. 102, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12263	journal	May 2014
Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests Bonan, G. B. Science, Vol. 320, Issue 5882 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121	journal	June 2008
The steady-state mosaic of disturbance and succession across an old-growth Central Amazon forest landscape Chambers, J. Q.; Negron-Juarez, R. I.; Marra, D. M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1202894110	journal	January 2013
Measuring net Primary Production in Forests: Concepts and Field Methods Clark, Deborah A.; Brown, Sandra; Kicklighter, David W. Ecological Applications, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[0356:MNPPIF]2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2001
Modeling carbon allocation in trees: a search for principles Franklin, O.; Johansson, J.; Dewar, R. C. Tree Physiology, Vol. 32, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpr138	journal	January 2012
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013	journal	January 2013
Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests Lewis, Simon L.; Sonké, Bonaventure; Sunderland, Terry Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 368, Issue 1625 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0295	journal	September 2013
Large trees drive forest aboveground biomass variation in moist lowland forests across the tropics: Large trees and tropical forest biomass Slik, J. W. Ferry; Paoli, Gary; McGuire, Krista Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 22, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12092	journal	July 2013
Residence times of woody biomass in tropical forests Galbraith, David; Malhi, Yadvinder; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi Plant Ecology & Diversity, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/17550874.2013.770578	journal	November 2012
Mortality as a key driver of the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass in Amazonian forest: results from a dynamic vegetation model Delbart, N.; Ciais, P.; Chave, J. Biogeosciences, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-3027-2010	journal	January 2010
Biomass allocation to leaves, stems and roots: meta-analyses of interspecific variation and environmental control: Tansley review Poorter, Hendrik; Niklas, Karl J.; Reich, Peter B. New Phytologist, Vol. 193, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03952.x	journal	November 2011
Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Smith, W. Kolby Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2413	journal	April 2015

Figures / Tables (4)

Similar Records

Evaluating the effect of alternative carbon allocation schemes in a land surface model (CLM4.5) on carbon fluxes, pools, and turnover in temperate forests

Journal Article · Fri Sep 22 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1222425

Montané, Francesc; Fox, Andrew M.; Arellano, Avelino F.; +16 more

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

Journal Article · Sat Dec 09 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Global Change Biology · OSTI ID:1222425

Xu, Xiangtao; van der Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; +6 more

The Rainfall Sensitivity of Tropical Net Primary Production in CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations

Journal Article · Mon Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2015 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1222425

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; +3 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Observed allocations of productivity and biomass, and turnover times in tropical forests are not accurately represented in CMIP5 Earth system models

Citation Formats

References (57)

Figures / Tables (4)

Similar Records

Related Subjects