Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO2 Geological Sequestration

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; Lu, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S. A.

doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO₂ Geological Sequestration

Journal Article · Thu Dec 20 00:00:00 EST 2012 · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.10.004· OSTI ID:1237556

Sun, Y. ^[1]; Tong, C. ^[1]; Trainor-Guitten, W. J. ^[1]; Lu, C. ^[1]; Mansoor, K. ^[1]; Carroll, S. A. ^[1]

Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

The risk of CO₂ leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO₂ geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO₂ is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO₂/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as a boundary condition. CO₂ and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO₂ plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO₂ and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1237556

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL--569456

Journal Information:: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Journal Name: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Vol. 12; ISSN 1750-5836

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited By (1)

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