Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation
- Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); FPoliSolutions, LLC, Murrysville, PA (United States)
- Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the code and thereby improves its support for decision-making. The work reported here implements several improvements on classic calibration techniques afforded by modern analysis techniques. The key innovation has come from development of code surrogate model (or code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. Use of a fast emulator makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. This study uses Gaussian Process (GP) based emulators, which have been used previously to emulate computer codes in the nuclear field. The present work describes the formulation of an emulator that incorporates GPs into a factor analysis-type or pattern recognition-type model. This “function factorization” Gaussian Process (FFGP) model allows overcoming limitations present in standard GP emulators, thereby improving both accuracy and speed of the emulator-based calibration process. Calibration of a friction-factor example using a Method of Manufactured Solution is performed to illustrate key properties of the FFGP based process.
- Research Organization:
- Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC07-05ID14517
- OSTI ID:
- 1223307
- Journal Information:
- Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, Journal Name: Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations Vol. 2015; ISSN 1687-6075
- Publisher:
- HindawiCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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