Appendix A - GPRA05 Benefits Estimates: MARKAL and NEMS Model Baseline Cases
The Baseline Case projection used to evaluate the impact of the EERE portfolio was benchmarked to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2003 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for the period between 2000 and 2025. To the extent possible, the same input data and assumptions were used in MARKAL (market allocation model) as were used to generate the AEO reference case. For example, the macroeconomic projections for gross domestic product (GDP), housing stock, commercial square footage, industrial output, and vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) were taken from the AEO. At the sector level, both supply-side and demand-side technologies were characterized to reflect the AEO assumptions, in cases where the representation of technologies is similar between MARKAL and the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The resulting projections track closely with the AEO at the aggregate level, although they do not match exactly at the end-use level. For the period after 2025, various sources were drawn upon to compile a set of economic and technical assumptions. The primary economic drivers of GDP and population were based on the real GDP growth rate from the Congressional Budget Office’s Long-Term Budget Outlook and population growth rates from the Social Security Administration’s 2002 Annual Report to the Board of Trustees.
- Research Organization:
- US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- OSTI ID:
- 1216589
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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