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Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

Journal Article · · Earth's Future
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000290· OSTI ID:1212449
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [3];  [15];  [16];  [17];  [18] more »;  [19];  [20] « less
  1. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  2. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences.
  3. Boise State Univ., Boise, ID (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  4. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  5. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). School of Natural Resources and the Environment.
  6. Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States). Dept. of Geosciences.
  7. Environmental Sciences Centre, Nottingham (United Kingdom). British Geological Survey.
  8. Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept of Civil Engineering, St. Anthony Falls Lab.
  9. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration.
  10. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept of Geography.
  11. Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)
  12. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences; Duke Univ. Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Univ. of Padova, Padova (Italy). Dept. of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering.
  13. Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster, PA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Environment.
  14. Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences.
  15. Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  16. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences.
  17. Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States). College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
  18. Univ. of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States). Dept. of Geology.
  19. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences.
  20. Univ. of Idaho, Boise, ID (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering.
+ Show Author Affiliations
In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.
Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1212449
Journal Information:
Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 3; ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Reconciling arroyo cycle and paleoflood approaches to late Holocene alluvial records in dryland streams journal April 2011
Proglacial lakes: character, behaviour and geological importance journal October 2013
Glacier-surface velocities in alpine terrain from optical satellite imagery—Accuracy improvement and quality assessment journal October 2008
Web-enabled Landsat Data (WELD): Landsat ETM+ composited mosaics of the conterminous United States journal January 2010
A global dataset of atmospheric aerosol optical depth and surface reflectance from AATSR journal January 2012
Using atmospherically-corrected Landsat imagery to measure glacier area change in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru from 1987 to 2010 journal January 2014
The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality journal October 2011
Last glacial maximum climate inferences from cosmogenic dating and glacier modeling of the western Uinta ice field, Uinta Mountains, Utah journal January 2008
A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features journal June 2003
Overview of megaflooding: Earth and Mars book September 2009
Mass balance and dynamics of a valley glacier measured by high-resolution LiDAR journal October 2007
Riverine flood plains: present state and future trends journal September 2002
Large Shift in Source of Fine Sediment in the Upper Mississippi River journal October 2011
Geomorphic Variations of Debris Flows and Recent Climatic Change in the French Alps journal May 2004
Riparian vegetation as a primary control on channel characteristics in multi-thread rivers book January 2004
Drag, turbulence, and diffusion in flow through emergent vegetation journal February 1999
Role of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall journal April 2000
Particle production and aeolian transport from a “supply-limited” source area in the Chihuahuan desert, New Mexico, United States journal March 2001
Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the NIMBUS 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol product journal January 2002
An ENSO predictor of dust emission in the southwestern United States: AN ENSO PREDICTOR OF DUST EMISSION journal May 2002
Sediment detachment by rain power: SEDIMENT DETACHMENT BY RAIN POWER journal January 2003
Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils journal December 2003
Mineral Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model: Description and 1990s dust climatology journal January 2003
A less dusty future?: A LESS DUSTY FUTURE? journal September 2003
Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission: SOIL DUST EMISSIONS AND LAND USE journal March 2004
Modeling the effects of vegetation-erosion coupling on landscape evolution journal January 2004
A mechanistic model for river incision into bedrock by saltating bed load: BEDROCK INCISION BY SALTATING BED LOAD journal June 2004
Recent rapid thinning of the “Mer de Glace” glacier derived from satellite optical images: THINNING OF GLACIER FROM SATELLITE DATA journal September 2004
Regional contrasts in dust emission responses to climate journal January 2005
Source and transport of terrigenous organic matter in the upper Yukon River: Evidence from isotope (δ 13 C, Δ 14 C, and δ 15 N) composition of dissolved, colloidal, and particulate phases : SOURCE AND TRANSPORT OF ORGANIC MATTER journal May 2006
A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise: AN ACCELERATION IN GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE journal January 2006
Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska journal January 2006
Estimation of the long-term variability of extreme significant wave height using a time-dependent Peak Over Threshold (POT) model journal January 2006
Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates: DUST RESPONSE TO CLIMATE journal May 2006
High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes: 1. Modeling of sand waves, flying spits, and capes journal January 2006
High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes: 2. Wave climate analysis and comparisons to nature journal January 2006
Tectonics, fracturing of rock, and erosion journal January 2007
Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images: SHRINKING PONDS ACROSS BOREAL ALASKA journal October 2006
The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission journal January 2007
Toward a unified science of the Earth's surface: Opportunities for synthesis among hydrology, geomorphology, geochemistry, and ecology: UNIFIED SCIENCE OF THE EARTH'S SURFACE journal March 2006
A pan-arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century journal January 2006
Coastline responses to changing storm patterns: COASTLINE RESPONSES TO CHANGING STORM PATTERNS journal September 2006
Modelling vegetated dune landscapes journal January 2007
Global inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations, 1993–2000 journal January 2007
Surface and aerodynamic roughness in arid and semiarid areas and their relation to radar backscatter coefficient: SURFACE ROUGHNESS IN ARID AREAS journal September 2006
Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: Modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics journal January 2007
Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change journal January 2007
Methods to assess natural and anthropogenic thaw lake drainage on the western Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska journal January 2007
Climatic controls on frost cracking and implications for the evolution of bedrock landscapes journal January 2007
Biogeochemical characterization of carbon sources in the Strickland and Fly rivers, Papua New Guinea journal January 2008
Time-dependent morphology of thaw lakes and taliks in deep and shallow ground ice journal January 2008
Thaw lake expansion in a two-dimensional coupled model of heat transfer, thaw subsidence, and mass movement journal January 2009
The arctic freshwater system: Changes and impacts: ARCTIC FRESHWATER-CHANGE AND IMPACTS journal November 2007
Modeling framework for sediment deposition, storage, and evacuation in the floodplain of a meandering river: Theory: FLOODPLAIN SEDIMENT STORAGE, 2 journal April 2008
Modeling framework for sediment deposition, storage, and evacuation in the floodplain of a meandering river: Application to the Clark Fork River, Montana: FLOODPLAIN SEDIMENT DEPOSITION-APPLICATION journal August 2008
Temporal controls on global dust emissions: The role of surface gustiness: TEMPORAL CONTROLS journal August 2007
Biologically-controlled multiple equilibria of tidal landforms and the fate of the Venice lagoon journal January 2007
Impact of the global warming on the fluvial thermal erosion over the Lena River in Central Siberia journal January 2007
Process signatures in regional patterns of shoreline change on annual to decadal time scales journal January 2007
A new river flooding scheme for global climate applications: Off-line evaluation over South America journal January 2008
Dust emissions from undisturbed and disturbed supply-limited desert surfaces journal January 2008
Coupled barrier island–resort model: 1. Emergent instabilities induced by strong human-landscape interactions journal January 2008
A unifying framework for shoreline migration: 2. Application to wave-dominated coasts journal January 2009
Sediment and nutrient delivery from thermokarst features in the foothills of the North Slope, Alaska: Potential impacts on headwater stream ecosystems: THERMOKARST IMPACTS ON STREAM ECOSYSTEMS journal June 2008
Biomorphodynamics: Physical-biological feedbacks that shape landscapes: OPINION journal November 2008
Rock falls in high-alpine rock walls quantified by terrestrial lidar measurements: A case study in the Mont Blanc area: ROCK FALLS QUANTIFIED BY LIDAR journal May 2008
Variability of extreme wave heights in the northeast Pacific Ocean based on buoy measurements journal January 2008
Increase in the rate and uniformity of coastline erosion in Arctic Alaska: HIGHER AND MORE UNIFORM ARCTIC EROSION journal February 2009
Physically based modeling of bedrock incision by abrasion, plucking, and macroabrasion journal January 2009
Numerical modeling of cosmogenic deglaciation records, Front Range and San Juan mountains, Colorado journal January 2009
Sand dune dynamics and climate change: A modeling approach journal January 2009
Effects of Hillslope Thermokarst in Northern Alaska journal January 2009
Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high-resolution climate modeling journal January 2009
Observational evidence of an intensifying hydrological cycle in northern Canada journal January 2009
Did the Zipingpu Reservoir trigger the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake? journal January 2009
Complexities in barrier island response to sea level rise: Insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks journal January 2010
A numerical model for the coupled long-term evolution of salt marshes and tidal flats journal January 2010
The importance of being coupled: Stable states and catastrophic shifts in tidal biomorphodynamics journal January 2010
Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System using global river discharge data and a source-to-sink routing scheme: SOURCE TO SINK ROUTING FOR GLOBAL MODELS journal June 2010
Selective preservation of old organic carbon fluvially released from sub-Arctic soils: SELECTIVE PRESERVATION OF OLD ORGANIC C journal June 2010
Barchan-parabolic dune pattern transition from vegetation stability threshold: DUNE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM THRESHOLD journal October 2010
Cumulative versus transient shoreline change: Dependencies on temporal and spatial scale: CUMULATIVE VERSUS TRANSIENT SHORELINE CHANGE journal May 2011
Modeling the flow of glaciers in steep terrains: The integrated second-order shallow ice approximation (iSOSIA): MODELING GLACIERS WHERE TOPOGRAPHY IS STEEP journal May 2011
Aeolian Processes and the Biosphere journal January 2011
Spatial distribution of deposition within a patch of vegetation: DEPOSITION PATTERN WITHIN A PATCH journal March 2011
A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model: FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION DYNAMICS journal April 2011
Dust: Small‐scale processes with global consequences journal July 2011
Wave-angle control of delta evolution: WAVE-ANGLE CONTROL OF DELTA EVOLUTION journal July 2011
The role of advective heat transport in talik development beneath lakes and ponds in discontinuous permafrost: GROUNDWATER FLOW AND LAKE TALIK journal September 2011
Understanding and predicting wave erosion of marsh edges: MARSH EDGE EROSION journal November 2011
Observational changes and trends in northeast Pacific wave records: NE PACIFIC WAVE TRENDS journal November 2011
Preferential dust sources: A geomorphological classification designed for use in global dust-cycle models journal January 2011
A spatially distributed model for the long-term suspended sediment discharge and delivery ratio of drainage basins: MODELING SUSPENDED SEDIMENT DISCHARGE journal May 2012
Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 1. Model description and behavior: LAND ICE-OCEAN COUPLING, 1 journal June 2012
Aeolian dune field geomorphology modulates the stabilization rate imposed by climate: DUNE FIELD STABILIZATION RATE journal June 2012
Drainage subsidence associated with Arctic permafrost degradation: ARCTIC DRAINAGE SUBSIDENCE journal November 2012
Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska journal January 2011
Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model journal January 2011
Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors journal January 2012
Prediction of sediment transport in step-pool channels: PREDICTION OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN STEP-POOL CHANNELS journal January 2012
Multiple dust sources in the Sahara Desert: The importance of sand dunes: SAHARAN DESERT DUST SOURCES journal July 2012
Long-term, non-local coastline responses to local shoreline stabilization: NON-LOCAL RESPONSES TO STABILIZATION journal October 2012
Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5: CMIP5 ENSO CHANGES journal September 2012
The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle: 1. Influence on seasonal streamflow, flooding and wetlands: AMAZON GROUNDWATER-SURFACE WATER LINK journal August 2012
River channel lateral mobility: metrics, time scales, and controls: RIVER CHANNEL LATERAL MOBILITY journal April 2013
How do vegetation bands form in dry lands? Insights from numerical modeling and field studies in southern Nevada, USA: FORMATION OF VEGETATION BANDS journal December 2012
A systematic analysis of eight decades of incipient motion studies, with special reference to gravel-bedded rivers journal August 1997
Relation of vertical flux of particles smaller than 10 μm to total aeolian horizontal mass flux at Owens Lake journal November 1997
Drainage basin responses to climate change journal August 1997
Are ocean wave heights increasing in the eastern North Pacific? journal January 2000
Yield of sediment in relation to mean annual precipitation journal January 1958
Settling velocity of natural particles journal December 1982
Settling velocity of natural particles journal December 1982
Sufficient conditions for river meandering: A simulation approach journal November 1984
Sufficient conditions for river meandering: A simulation approach journal November 1984
An assessment of bed load sediment transport formulae for gravel bed rivers journal June 1989
An assessment of bed load sediment transport formulae for gravel bed rivers journal June 1989
Has the north-east Atlantic become rougher? journal April 1988
Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost journal April 2001
Formation of coastline features by large-scale instabilities induced by high-angle waves journal November 2001
Geomorphological signatures of varying climate journal April 1995
Vegetation and climate change in northwest America during the past 125 kyr journal July 1997
The soil production function and landscape equilibrium journal July 1997
Control of atmospheric export of dust from North Africa by the North Atlantic Oscillation journal June 1997
Melting in the Andes: Goodbye glaciers journal November 2012
Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality journal September 2012
Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests journal November 2004
Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming journal June 2005
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years journal July 2005
Increase in African dust flux at the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region journal July 2010
Climatic control of bedrock river incision journal April 2013
Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change journal June 2013
A signature of transience in bedrock river incision rates over timescales of 104–107 years journal January 2014
Methane emissions from permafrost thaw lakes limited by lake drainage journal May 2011
Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality journal September 2012
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming journal January 2014
Barrier island bistability induced by biophysical interactions journal December 2014
Flow velocities of Alaskan glaciers journal July 2013
Response of glacier basal motion to transient water storage journal December 2007
Biophysical controls on organic carbon fluxes in fluvial networks journal January 2008
Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover journal January 2011
Riverine carbon dioxide release journal November 2011
Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean journal June 2013
Barbados-based estimate of ice volume at Last Glacial Maximum affected by subducted plate journal June 2013
Patagonian dust machine journal April 2009
The boundless carbon cycle journal September 2009
Tropical cyclones and climate change journal February 2010
Rapid formation of a modern bedrock canyon by a single flood event journal June 2010
Implications of Complex Response of Drainage Systems for Quaternary Alluvial Stratigraphy journal June 1973
On post-glacial sea level: I. General theory journal August 2003
Aeolian system sediment state: theory and Mojave Desert Kelso dune field example journal June 1999
Sedimentology, stratigraphy and landscape evolution of a Holocene coastal dune system, Lodbjerg, NW Jutland, Denmark journal February 2001
Sediment-Laden Flow in Open-Channels under Noncapacity and Capacity Conditions journal May 1999
Surface-based Transport Model for Mixed-Size Sediment journal February 2003
Unified View of Sediment Transport by Currents and Waves. II: Suspended Transport journal June 2007
Is the Intensifying Wave Climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest Increasing Flooding and Erosion Risk Faster Than Sea-Level Rise? journal March 2013
ASCE Manual of Practice 110 — Sedimentation Engineering: Processes, Measurements, Modeling and Practice conference April 2012
Influence of vegetation recovery on soil hydrology and erodibility following fire: an 11-year investigation journal January 2005
Critical bifurcation of shallow microtidal landforms in tidal flats and salt marshes journal May 2006
A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution journal March 2007
Elevated CO2 stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise journal March 2009
Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States journal December 2010
Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau journal February 2011
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques journal April 2012
Mapping Greenland's mass loss in space and time journal November 2012
Vegetation engineers marsh morphology through multiple competing stable states journal February 2013
Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise journal March 2013
Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century journal July 2013
Vegetation controls on the maximum size of coastal dunes journal October 2013
Daily Mortality and PM 10 Pollution in Utah Valley journal June 1992
Rates of Landward Sand Transport over the Foredune at Skallingen, Denmark and the Role of Dune Ramps journal January 2004
GIS‐based modeling of glacial hazards and their interactions using Landsat‐TM and IKONOS imagery journal June 2004
Assessment of the hazard potential of ice avalanches using remote sensing and GIS‐modelling journal June 2004
Sediment release and storage in early deglaciated areas: Towards an application of the exhaustion model from the case of Massif des Écrins (French Alps) since the Little Ice Age journal June 2008
Establishing water body areal extent trends in interior Alaska from multi-temporal Landsat data journal December 2012
Climate impacts on extreme ice-jam events in Canadian rivers journal February 2001
Hydroclimatic flood trends in the northeastern United States and linkages with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns journal July 2014
Remote sensing-based inventory of glacial lakes in Sikkim Himalaya: semi-automated approach using satellite data journal September 2013
Geology, Geography, and Humans Battle for Dominance over the Delivery of Fluvial Sediment to the Coastal Ocean journal January 2007
On the Tectonic and Morphologic Classification of Coasts journal January 1971
Feedback Relationship in Wave Erosion of Laboratory Rocky Coast journal July 1976
Global Distribution of Barrier Islands in Terms of Tectonic Setting journal May 1978
Food and water security in a changing arctic climate journal October 2007
What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review journal January 2010
The Southern Kalahari: a potential new dust source in the Southern Hemisphere? journal April 2012
Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence journal July 2005
The secret gardener: vegetation and the emergence of biogeomorphic patterns in tidal environments
  • Da Lio, Cristina; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Marani, Marco
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 371, Issue 2004 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0367
journal December 2013
Why Do Active and Stabilized Dunes Coexist under the Same Climatic Conditions? journal May 2007
Space-based mapping of glacier changes using ASTER and GIS tools journal October 2004
The Influence of Complex Systems Interactions on Barrier Island Dune Vegetation Pattern and Process journal March 2003
Estimate of Ablation Rate of Glacier Ice under a Supraglacial Debris Layer journal December 1999
Landslide‐glacier interaction in a neoparaglacial setting at tverrbytnede, jotunheimen, southern norway journal December 2010
Invasive grasses, climate change, and exposure to storm-wave overtopping in coastal dune ecosystems journal December 2012
Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes journal April 2013
Supraglacial debris supply in the cuerpo de hombre paleoglacier (spanish central system): reconstruction and interpretation of a rock avalanche event journal September 2013
Estimate of Ablation Rate of Glacier Ice under a Supraglacial Debris Layer journal December 1999
The ‘little ice age’: re‐evaluation of an evolving concept journal March 2005
On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models journal June 2005
On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints: On predictions of sea-level fingerprints journal October 2011
Mechanisms influencing changes in lake area in Alaskan boreal forest: MECHANISMS FOR LAKE AREA CHANGE IN ALASKA journal May 2011
Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the S onoran D esert region journal November 2011
Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics (1975–2005) of the tsunami-affected region of Asia journal March 2008
The effects of soluble salts on the threshold shear velocity of fine sand journal August 1981
Development of deflation lag surfaces journal June 1995
Sedimentology, stratigraphy and landscape evolution of a Holocene coastal dune system, Lodbjerg, NW Jutland, Denmark: Landscape evolution of a Holocene coastal dune system journal February 2001
Aeolian Decoupling of Beach Sediments journal June 1991
A framework for characterizing fluvial sediment fluxes from source to sink in cold environments journal June 2010
Landslide‐glacier interaction in a neoparaglacial setting at tverrbytnede, jotunheimen, southern norway journal December 2010
Subtle differences in two non-native congeneric beach grasses significantly affect their colonization, spread, and impact journal May 2011
Sediment discharge variability in Arctic rivers: implications for a warmer future journal December 2002
Disappearing Arctic Lakes journal June 2005
ENVIRONMENT: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back on U.S. Floodplains journal April 2005
Impact of Humans on the Flux of Terrestrial Sediment to the Global Coastal Ocean journal April 2005
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment journal September 2005
Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity journal August 2006
A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise journal January 2007
Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century journal August 2007
Natural Streams and the Legacy of Water-Powered Mills journal January 2008
The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse journal February 2009
The Last Glacial Maximum journal August 2009
Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009 journal August 2010
Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height journal March 2011
Ice-Sheet Response to Oceanic Forcing journal November 2012
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance journal November 2012
A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009 journal May 2013
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change journal November 2013
Quantifying Global Warming from the Retreat of Glaciers journal April 1994
Biotic Control over the Functioning of Ecosystems journal July 1997
Regional response of alluvial fans to the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition, Mojave Desert, California book January 2003
Late Quaternary variations in alluvial fan sedimentologic and geomorphic processes, Soda Lake basin, eastern Mojave Desert, California book January 2003
River incision into bedrock: Mechanics and relative efficacy of plucking, abrasion, and cavitation journal March 2000
Holocene strath terraces, climate change, and active tectonics: The Clearwater River basin, Olympic Peninsula, Washington State journal June 2002
Numerical modeling of fluvial strath-terrace formation in response to oscillating climate journal September 2002
Necessary conditions for a meandering-river avulsion journal January 1998
Mountain erosion over 10 yr, 10 k.y., and 10 m.y. time scales journal January 2001
Sediment and rock strength controls on river incision into bedrock journal January 2001
The impact of humans on continental erosion and sedimentation journal January 2007
The influence of large landslides on river incision in a transient landscape: Eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (Sichuan, China) journal November 2007
Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States journal September 2009
Widespread hillslope gullying on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Human or climate-change induced? journal June 2011
Late Quaternary weathering, erosion, and deposition in Nahal Yael, Israel: An "impact of climatic change on an arid watershed"? journal February 2012
The effects of precipitation gradients on river profile evolution on the Big Island of Hawai'i journal January 2013
Climate-controlled variations in scree production, Southern Alps, New Zealand journal January 2005
Dynamic single-thread channels maintained by the interaction of flow and vegetation journal January 2007
Vegetation causes channel erosion in a tidal landscape journal January 2007
Quantitative remote sensing study indicates doubling of coastal erosion rate in past 50 yr along a segment of the Arctic coast of Alaska journal January 2007
Barchan dunes stabilized under recent climate warming on the northern Great Plains journal November 2009
Episodic bedrock strath terrace formation due to meander migration and cutoff journal February 2011
Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates journal May 2011
Beach and sea-cliff dynamics as a driver of long-term rocky coastline evolution and stability journal December 2011
A theory of glacial quarrying for landscape evolution models journal August 2012
A reduced relevance of vegetation change for alluvial aggradation in arid zones journal January 2013
Land transformation by humans: A review journal December 2012
Late Holocene syngenetic ice-wedge polygons development, Bylot Island, Canadian Arctic Archipelago journal August 2004
Geomorphology of a thermo-erosion gully, Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada 1 This article is one of a series of papers published in this CJES Special Issue on the theme of Fundamental and applied research on permafrost in Canada . 2 Polar Continental Shelf Project Contribution 043-11. journal August 2012
Response of boreal ecosystems to varying modes of permafrost degradation journal September 2005
Overwash Controls Coastal Barrier Response to Sea-Level rise conference June 2012
Interannual to Decadal Foredune Evolution conference June 2012
Late Holocene dune formation on the Sefton coast, northwest England journal January 1993
Geotechnical controls on a steep lateral moraine undergoing paraglacial slope adjustment journal January 2009
Climate sensitivity: implications for the response of geomorphological systems to future climate change journal January 2009
Paraglacial gravitational deformations in the SW Alps: a review of field investigations, 10 Be cosmogenic dating and physical modelling journal January 2011
Contemporary Sea Level Rise journal January 2010
Channel Networks journal May 1998
Bedrock Rivers and the Geomorphology of Active Orogens journal May 2004
Bed Material Transport and the Morphology of Alluvial River Channels journal May 2006
Biogeochemistry of Glacial Landscape Systems journal May 2007
A Conterminous United States Multilayer Soil Characteristics Dataset for Regional Climate and Hydrology Modeling journal January 1998
A Conterminous United States Multilayer Soil Characteristics Dataset for Regional Climate and Hydrology Modeling journal January 1998
North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios for the Twenty-First Century journal June 2004
Evidence for Intensification of North Pacific Winter Cyclones since 1948 journal September 2001
Decadal Trends in Sea Level Patterns: 1993–2004 journal December 2007
Glacier Changes and Regional Climate: A Mass and Energy Balance Approach journal October 2008
Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First Century Projections journal September 2010
Statistical Model for Forecasting Monthly Large Wildfire Events in Western United States journal July 2007
Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models journal August 2013
The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change journal January 2014
Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming journal November 2014
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming journal November 2006
A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models journal June 2013
Synchronization of transport and supply in beach-dune interaction journal October 2009
Glacier retreat and climate change: Documenting the last 50 years of Alpine glacier history from area and geometry changes of Dosdè Piazzi glaciers (Lombardy Alps, Italy) journal March 2011
Effects of climate change on mass movements in mountain environments journal March 2012
Testing a cellular modelling approach to simulating late-Holocene sediment and water transfer from catchment to lake in the French Alps since 1826 journal July 2009
Critical Zone Observatories: Building a network to advance interdisciplinary study of Earth surface processes journal February 2008
Modern and ancient periglacial river types journal December 2002
Aeolian-fluvial interactions in dryland environments: examples, concepts and Australia case study journal December 2003
Late-Holocene (post-4000 years BP) coastal dune development in Northumberland, northeast England journal February 2001
Late-Holocene sand invasion and North Atlantic storminess along the Aquitaine Coast, southwest France journal February 2002
Mid-to late-Holocene coastal dune event stratigraphy for the north coast of Northern Ireland journal April 2004
Aeolian sand depositional records from western Nebraska: landscape response to droughts in the past 1500 years journal November 2005
Climate changes and debris flows in periglacial areas in the Italian Alps book September 2008
The Economic Effects of Climate Change journal April 2009
SMoRMod – A GIS-integrated Rainfall-runoff Model journal January 1996
A Simple Universal Equation for Grain Settling Velocity journal November 2004
Process-Response Modeling of Wave-Dominated Coastal Systems: Simulating Evolution and Stratigraphy on Geological Timescales journal March 2002
Volumetric Analysis of Overwash Fans Resulting from Tropical Storms on North Hatteras Island, North Carolina journal January 2005
Contemporary (1951–2001) Evolution of Lakes in the Old Crow Basin, Northern Yukon, Canada: Remote Sensing, Numerical Modeling, and Stable Isotope Analysis journal September 2009
Ecosystem Processes and Human Influences Regulate Streamflow Response to Climate Change at Long-Term Ecological Research Sites journal April 2012
400 Years of Debris-Flow Activity and Triggering Weather Conditions: Ritigraben, Valais, Switzerland journal August 2005
New Insights into Factors Controlling Drainage Density in Subarctic Landscapes journal February 2007
Fluvial Impact of Extensive Active Layer Detachments, Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Canada journal February 2009
Drainage Network Structure and Hydrologic Behavior of Three Lake-Rich Watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska journal November 2012
Sediment Transport and Bedrock Erosion by Wet Snow Avalanches in the Guggigraben, Matter Valley, Switzerland journal August 2013
Comparative tolerances of riparian willows and cottonwoods to water-table decline journal June 2002
Recent shifts in coastline change and shoreline stabilization linked to storm climate change text January 2015
Responses of Coastal Wetlands to Rising sea Level journal October 2002
Riverine coupling of biogeochemical cycles between land, oceans, and atmosphere
  • Aufdenkampe, Anthony K.; Mayorga, Emilio; Raymond, Peter A.
  • Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1890/100014
journal February 2011
Biophysical feedback mediates effects of invasive grasses on coastal dune shape journal June 2012
A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO 2 journal January 2011
Conceptual Model of the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Sandy Coasts journal November 2005
Climate Controls on US West Coast Erosion Processes journal May 2006
Onshore Migration of a Swash Bar During a Storm journal January 2007
Tropical Cyclones and the Evolution of the Sedimentary Coast of Northern Australia journal January 2006
Open-Ocean Barrier Islands: Global Influence of Climatic, Oceanographic, and Depositional Settings journal March 2011
Long-Term, Large-Scale Morphodynamic Effects of Artificial Dune Construction along a Barrier Island Coastline journal September 2011
Long-Term, Large-Scale Morphodynamic Effects of Artificial Dune Construction along a Barrier Island Coastline journal September 2011
Modeling Water and Soil Redistribution in a Dynamic Landscape Context journal January 2002
The Physical Basis of Frost Weathering: Toward a More Fundamental and Unified Perspective journal February 1986
Near-Surface Thermal Profiles in Alpine Bedrock: Implications for the Frost Weathering of Rock journal November 1998
Geomorphic Thresholds: The Concept and Its Applications journal January 1979
Beach and Vegetation-Line Changes at Galveston Island, Texas: Erosion, Deposition, and Recovery from Hurricane Alicia report January 1985
Developing Frameworks for Studies on Sedimentary Fluxes and Budgets in Changing Cold Environments journal January 2011
On the ratio of wind- to water-driven sediment transport: Conserving soil under global-change-type extreme events journal March 2011
Computation and analysis of the instantaneous-discharge record for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona — May 8, 1921, through September 30, 2000 report January 2003
The hydraulic geometry of stream channels and some physiographic implications report January 1953
Spatial distribution of surface mass balance on Amundsenisen plateau, Antarctica, derived from ice-penetrating radar studies journal January 2004
A more complete version of the World Glacier Inventory journal January 2009
A model of ablation-dominated medial moraines and the generation of debris-mantled glacier snouts journal January 2000
The annual glaciohydrology cycle in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet: Part 2. Observed and modeled ice flow journal January 2012
On the response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change journal January 2013
Quantifying the predictability of the timing of jökulhlaups from Merzbacher Lake, Kyrgyzstan journal January 2013
Influence of debris cover on terminus retreat and mass changes of Chorabari Glacier, Garhwal region, central Himalaya, India journal January 2013
Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations journal January 2013
Detecting Ecosystem Performance Anomalies for Land Management in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Satellite Observations, Climate Data, and Ecosystem Models journal July 2010
Biogeochemistry of carbon in the Amazon River journal March 1990
Modeling past and future surface mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield text January 2013
Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change text January 2007
Hazard assessment of potential periglacial debris flows based on GIS-based spatial modelling and geophysical field surveys: a case study in the Swiss Alps text January 2007
Recent glacier changes in the Alps observed by satellite: consequences for future monitoring strategies text January 2007
A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009 text January 2013
Slope failures and erosion rates on a glacierized high-mountain face under climatic changes text January 2013
Controls on the magnitude-frequency scaling of an inventory of secular landslides journal January 2013
The linkages among hillslope-vegetation changes, elevation, and the timing of late-Quaternary fluvial-system aggradation in the Mojave Desert revisited journal January 2014
Assessing the influence of sea walls on the coastal vulnerability of a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coastline journal January 2013
Controls on the magnitude-frequency scaling of an inventory of secular landslides journal July 2013
Assessing the natural morphological sensitivity of a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coast to a changing wave climate journal January 2013
A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions journal January 2011
Discharge simulation in the sub-basins of the Amazon using ORCHIDEE forced by new datasets journal January 2012
Discharge simulation in the sub-basins of the Amazon using ORCHIDEE forced by new datasets journal January 2011
Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps journal January 2003
Evaluation of a preliminary satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm using global landslide inventories journal January 2009
Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery journal January 2011
The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description journal January 2011
Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999–2011 journal January 2013
Report on the geology of the Henry Mountains book January 1877

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Coarser and rougher: Effects of fine gravel pulses on experimental step-pool channel morphodynamics: STEP-POOL RESPONSE TO FINE GRAVEL Pulse journal October 2015
Coupled topographic and vegetation patterns in coastal dunes: Remote sensing observations and ecomorphodynamic implications: Ecogeomorphic Patterns in Coastal Dunes journal January 2017
A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models: A GLOBAL DATA ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENT YIELD journal December 2017
Influence of anthropogenic land-use change on hillslope erosion in the Waipaoa River Basin, New Zealand: Anthropogenic Land-Use Change Increases Erosion Rate in Waipaoa Basin journal July 2016
Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks: Which way do you lean? journal February 2018
Spatial Sequential Modeling and Predication of Global Land Use and Land Cover Changes by Integrating a Global Change Assessment Model and Cellular Automata journal September 2019
Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain journal January 2020
Does nature matter? Arguing for a biophysical turn in the ecotourism narrative journal March 2019
Impact of recycling and lateral sediment input on grain size fining trends—Implications for reconstructing tectonic and climate forcings in ancient sedimentary systems journal March 2019
Quantifying and forecasting changes in the areal extent of river valley sediment in response to altered hydrology and land cover journal September 2018
Long-profile evolution of transport-limited gravel-bed rivers text January 2019
The influence of Holocene vegetation changes on topography and erosion rates: A case study at Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona journal January 2016
Long-profile evolution of transport-limited gravel-bed rivers journal January 2019
Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model journal January 2019

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