The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

Journal Article · Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Climatic Change, 131(1):35-50

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1026-7· OSTI ID:1203855

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario, there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1203855
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-94788; 400408000
• Journal Information: Climatic Change, 131(1):35-50, Journal Name: Climatic Change, 131(1):35-50
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English