Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

Barkhordarian, Armineh

doi:10.1100/2012/525303

Title: Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

Journal Article · Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2012 · The Scientific World Journal (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1100/2012/525303· OSTI ID:1198188

Barkhordarian, Armineh ^[1]

Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

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Research Organization:: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division

OSTI ID:: 1198188

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1625608

Journal Information:: The Scientific World Journal (Online), Journal Name: The Scientific World Journal (Online) Vol. 2012; ISSN 1537-744X

Publisher:: Hindawi Publishing CorporationCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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Cited by: 6 works

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