Commercial viability of hybrid vehicles : best household use and cross national considerations.
Japanese automakers have introduced hybrid passenger cars in Japan and will soon do so in the US. In this paper, we report how we used early computer simulation model results to compare the commercial viability of a hypothetical near-term (next decade) hybrid mid-size passenger car configuration under varying fuel price and driving patterns. The fuel prices and driving patterns evaluated are designed to span likely values for major OECD nations. Two types of models are used. One allows the ''design'' of a hybrid to a specified set of performance requirements and the prediction of fuel economy under a number of possible driving patterns (called driving cycles). Another provides an estimate of the incremental cost of the hybrid in comparison to a comparably performing conventional vehicle. In this paper, the models are applied to predict the NPV cost of conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles vs. parallel hybrid vehicles. The parallel hybrids are assumed to (1) be produced at high volume, (2) use nickel metal hydride battery packs, and (3) have high-strength steel bodies. The conventional vehicle also is assumed to have a high-strength steel body. The simulated vehicles are held constant in many respects, including 0-60 time, engine type, aerodynamic drag coefficient, tire rolling resistance, and frontal area. The hybrids analyzed use the minimum size battery pack and motor to meet specified 0-60 times. A key characteristic affecting commercial viability is noted and quantified: that hybrids achieve the most pronounced fuel economy increase (best use) in slow, average-speed, stop-and-go driving, but when households consistently drive these vehicles under these conditions, they tend to travel fewer miles than average vehicles. We find that hours driven is a more valuable measure than miles. Estimates are developed concerning hours of use of household vehicles versus driving cycle, and the pattern of minimum NPV incremental cost (or benefit) of selecting the hybrid over the conventional vehicle at various fuel prices is illustrated. These results are based on data from various OECD motions on fuel price, annual miles of travel per vehicle, and driving cycles assumed to be applicable in those nations. Scatter in results plotted as a function of average speed, related to details of driving cycles and the vehicles selected for analysis, is discussed.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 11897
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/ES/CP-99558; TRN: AH200119%%206
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: USAEE/IAEE 20th Annual North American Conference, Orlando, FL (US), 08/29/1999--09/01/1999; Other Information: PBD: 16 Jul 1999
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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