Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

Journal Article · Sat Nov 01 04:00:00 EDT 2014 · Journal of Applied Microbiology, 117(5):1312-1327

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/jam.12624· OSTI ID:1188922

Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1188922
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-107501; 400409900
• Journal Information: Journal of Applied Microbiology, 117(5):1312-1327, Journal Name: Journal of Applied Microbiology, 117(5):1312-1327
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English