Bayes` theorem and quantitative risk assessment

Conference · Sat Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1994

OSTI ID:118608

Kaplan, S ^[1]

---

1. PLG Inc., Newport Beach, CA (United States)

This paper argues that for a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to be useful for public and private decision making, and for rallying the support necessary to implement those decisions, it is necessary that the QRA results be ``trustable.`` Trustable means that the results are based solidly and logically on all the relevant evidence available. This, in turn, means that the quantitative results must be derived from the evidence using Bayes` theorem. Thus, it argues that one should strive to make their QRAs more clearly and explicitly Bayesian, and in this way make them more ``evidence dependent`` than ``personality dependent.``

• OSTI ID: 118608
• Report Number(s): CONF-9310432-; ISBN 0-7844-0032-6; TRN: IM9546%%9
• Resource Relation: Conference: 6. conference on risk-based decision making, Santa Barbara, CA (United States), 31 Oct - 5 Nov 1993; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Risk-based decision making in water resources VI: Proceedings of the sixth Engineering Foundation conference; Haimes, Y.Y.; Moser, D.A.; Stakhiv, E.Z. [eds.]; PB: 392 p.
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY
RISK ASSESSMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
FORECASTING
PROBABILITY
DATA COVARIANCES