Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Journal Article · · Energy (Oxford)
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. BCS Inc., Wartburg, TN (United States)
  3. Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1185590
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1247851
Journal Information:
Energy (Oxford), Journal Name: Energy (Oxford) Journal Issue: 2015 Vol. 80; ISSN 0360-5442
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (29)

Climate change and hydropower generation journal July 1997
Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW journal October 2013
Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States journal December 2008
Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations journal October 2000
Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California journal June 2006
Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower journal July 2007
Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American River journal November 2007
Estimated impacts of climate warming on California’s high-elevation hydropower journal November 2009
Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State journal May 2010
Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios journal August 2001
Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change journal July 2002
The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin journal January 2004
Modeling California's high-elevation hydropower systems in energy units: MODELING HIGH-ELEVATION HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS journal September 2009
A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America journal September 2009
Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States journal January 2010
Intensification of hot extremes in the United States: INTENSIFICATION OF HOT EXTREMES journal August 2010
Time of emergence of climate signals: TIME OF EMERGENCE OF CLIMATE SIGNALS journal January 2012
Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate journal October 2012
Assessing the Need for Downscaling RCM Data for Hydrologic Impact Study journal June 2011
GIS-Based Water Budget Framework for High-Resolution Groundwater Recharge Estimation of Large-Scale Humid Regions journal August 2014
Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change journal October 2005
Climate change impacts on the reliability of hydroelectric energy production journal October 1997
Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin journal December 1999
Digital Hydrologic Networks Supporting Applications Related to Spatially Referenced Regression Modeling1: Digital Hydrologic Networks Supporting Applications Related to Spatially Referenced Regression Modeling journal August 2011
Smart Interpolation of Annually Averaged Air Temperature in the United States journal December 1995
Regional Climate Modeling for the Developing World: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET journal September 2007
A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate journal January 2002
Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties journal January 2007
A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter data set for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous US journal January 2014

Cited By (7)

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS OVER THE U.S. journal September 2016
Impact of climate variability on hydropower generation in an un-gauged catchment: Erathna run-of-the-river hydropower plant, Sri Lanka journal March 2019
A survey of analytical methods for inclusion in a new energy-water nexus knowledge discovery framework journal July 2018
Non-stationary hydropower generation projections constrained by environmental and electricity grid operations over the western United States journal July 2018
The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain journal September 2017
Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China journal January 2016
The impacts of climate change on irrigation and crop production in Northeast China and implications for energy use and GHG Emission journal January 2018

Similar Records

The Second Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower
Technical Report · Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · OSTI ID:1340431
Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing
Conference · Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2011 · OSTI ID:1019333
Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States
Journal Article · Wed Aug 21 20:00:00 EDT 2024 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:2438772

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
hydropower
water availability