Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems
- Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)
This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.
- Research Organization:
- Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- Contributing Organization:
- Georgia Institute of Technology
- DOE Contract Number:
- SC0007554
- OSTI ID:
- 1182264
- Report Number(s):
- Final Report: DOE-CFAN-0007554
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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