Will the Brazilian alcohol program accomplish vehicles future demand?
- Univ. of Sao Paulo (Brazil); and others
The National Alcohol Program, {open_quotes}Proalcool{close_quotes}, established in Brazil in 1975, nowadays faces a decisive moment due to its economic and, consequently, supply problems. Since 1989, ethanol production has not been enough for the Brazilian alcohol fueled fleet. This unbalanced situation subjects it to a loss of reliability in the Program. The supply problems are due to the controversy regarding ethanol costs. Alcohol production has been maintained almost the same, since 1988, despite a reduction of sugar cane harvested surface, by an increase in agro-industrial productivity. This paper discusses the relationship between production and demand of ethanol as a strategic gasoline substitute. Ethanol production forecasts are compared to official goals related to alcohol demand for automotive purposes, which has established a given percentage of alcohol fueled vehicle in total sales. Two scenarios adopted in this work ({open_quotes}conservative{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}efficient{close_quotes}) estimate on ethanol production of 16.53 and 19.44 billion liters, respectively, for year 2015. These results, when compared to ethanol demand in the same year, 22.7 billion liters, lead to a significant deficit of alcohol. From the obtained results, measures for the adjustment of Proalcool are proposed.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 115391
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/CP-200-8098; CONF-9508104-; ON: DE95009230; TRN: 95:006736-0175
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 2. meeting on biomass of the Americas, Portland, OR (United States), 21-24 Aug 1995; Other Information: PBD: [1995]; Related Information: Is Part Of Second biomass conference of the Americas: Energy, environment, agriculture, and industry. Proceedings; PB: 1741 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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