Case study of residential exposure pathways: A probabilistic risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation
- MSE, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
The risk assessment case study presented in this paper evaluates the potential human health risk to residential receptors exposed to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene from a JP-4 fuel spill. The eight residential scenario exposure pathways quantitatively assessed for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic toxicological effects are: ingestion of groundwater, ingestion of soil, inhalation of volatiles (outdoors), inhalation of fugitive dust, dermal exposure to soil, dermal exposure while showering, inhalation of volatiles while showering, and ingestion of fruits and vegetables. Human health risks were calculated following EPA guidance documents which recommend determining a point estimate for potential risk in a baseline risk assessment (BRA) and a quantified uncertainty in that point estimate by a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). BRAs typically use conservative estimates for exposure parameters, and consequently, the calculated risk represents an upper-bound or worst scenario that is beyond the reasonable maximum exposure (RME) without an associated quantified uncertainty. PRAs employing Monte Carlo techniques incorporate distributions for exposure parameters into the risk analysis to calculate a distribution for risk with each value in the risk distribution having a corresponding quantified uncertainty. The results of the assessment presented in this paper are examined to show the usefulness of the PRA in quantifying the uncertainty in the BRA.
- OSTI ID:
- 113250
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-940499--; ISBN 1-56590-014-6
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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