Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

Journal Article · Sun Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · Climatic Change, 123(3-4):511-525

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5· OSTI ID:1130656

Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1130656
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-93432; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Climatic Change, 123(3-4):511-525, Journal Name: Climatic Change, 123(3-4):511-525
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English