Varicella infection modeling.

Technical Report · Sun Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 2013

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1096254· OSTI ID:1096254

Jones, Katherine A.; Finley, Patrick D.; Moore, Thomas W.; Nozick, Linda Karen; Martin, Nathaniel; Bandlow, Alisa; Detry, Richard Joseph; Evans, Leland B.; Berger, Taylor Eugen

Infectious diseases can spread rapidly through healthcare facilities, resulting in widespread illness among vulnerable patients. Computational models of disease spread are useful for evaluating mitigation strategies under different scenarios. This report describes two infectious disease models built for the US Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) motivated by a Varicella outbreak in a VA facility. The first model simulates disease spread within a notional contact network representing staff and patients. Several interventions, along with initial infection counts and intervention delay, were evaluated for effectiveness at preventing disease spread. The second model adds staff categories, location, scheduling, and variable contact rates to improve resolution. This model achieved more accurate infection counts and enabled a more rigorous evaluation of comparative effectiveness of interventions.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 1096254
• Report Number(s): SAND2013-8319; 476480
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English