Bayesian hierarchical models for soil CO{sub 2} flux and leak detection at geologic sequestration sites

Journal Article · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 2011 · Environmental Earth Sciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-0903-5· OSTI ID:1081556

Yang, Ya-Mei; Small, Mitchell J.; Junker, Brian; Bromhal, Grant S.; Strazisar, Brian; Wells, Arthur

Proper characterizations of background soil CO{sub 2} respiration rates are critical for interpreting CO{sub 2} leakage monitoring results at geologic sequestration sites. In this paper, a method is developed for determining temperature-dependent critical values of soil CO{sub 2} flux for preliminary leak detection inference. The method is illustrated using surface CO{sub 2} flux measurements obtained from the AmeriFlux network fit with alternative models for the soil CO{sub 2} flux versus soil temperature relationship. The models are fit first to determine pooled parameter estimates across the sites, then using a Bayesian hierarchical method to obtain both global and site-specific parameter estimates. Model comparisons are made using the deviance information criterion (DIC), which considers both goodness of fit and model complexity. The hierarchical models consistently outperform the corresponding pooled models, demonstrating the need for site-specific data and estimates when determining relationships for background soil respiration. A hierarchical model that relates the square root of the CO{sub 2} flux to a quadratic function of soil temperature is found to provide the best fit for the AmeriFlux sites among the models tested. This model also yields effective prediction intervals, consistent with the upper envelope of the flux data across the modeled sites and temperature ranges. Calculation of upper prediction intervals using the proposed method can provide a basis for setting critical values in CO{sub 2} leak detection monitoring at sequestration sites.

• Research Organization: National Energy Technology Laboratory - In-house Research
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
• Contributing Organization: National Energy Technology Laboratory Carnegie Mellon University
• DOE Contract Number: FE0004000
• OSTI ID: 1081556
• Report Number(s): TPR-3250
• Journal Information: Environmental Earth Sciences, Journal Name: Environmental Earth Sciences Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 64; ISSN 1866-6280
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
Bayesian hierarchical model
CO{sub 2} flux
CO{sub 2} leakage
Geologic carbon sequestration
Soil respiration
Statistical leak detection