Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi Response
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. This work encompassed: weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions, estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases, predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations, and source estimation and plume model refinement. An overview of NARAC response activities is provided, along with a more in-depth discussion of some of NARAC’s preliminary source reconstruction analyses. NARAC optimized the overall agreement of model predictions to dose rate measurements using statistical comparisons of data and model values paired in space and time. Estimated emission rates varied depending on the choice of release assumptions (e.g., time-varying vs. constant release rates), the radionuclide mix, meteorology, and/or the radiological data used in the analysis. Results were found to be consistent with other studies within expected uncertainties, despite the application of different source estimation methodologies and the use of significantly different radiological measurement data. A discussion of some of the operational and scientific challenges encountered during the response, along with recommendations for future work, is provided.
- Research Organization:
- US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington DC (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE NA Office of Emergency Response (NA-42)
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC52-07NA27344
- OSTI ID:
- 1081468
- Journal Information:
- Health Physics, Vol. 102, Issue 5
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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