Second Generation Toolset for Calculation of Induced Seismicity Risk Profiles
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Savy Risk Consulting, Oakland, CA (United States)
This report describes development and demonstration of Generation 2 of the NRAP toolset for probabilistic analysis of risks from earthquakes that could potentially be induced by CO2 injection. The capability to carry out hazard estimation at multiple sites and over multiple time periods of interested has been added to the integrated toolset. The capability to carry out hazard runs that utilize multiple simulations, based on random sampling of input parameter distributions, to bound hazard curve uncertainties has also been added. During Generation 2, an innovative method of constructing “nuisance fragility” functions for seismic ground motion has been developed. These functions are combined with seismic hazard curves to estimate of the risk of nuisance from ground shaking. The results described in this report demonstrate the functionality of the toolset based on its application to hypothetical scenarios involving one or two faults. Additional computer program development, including code parallelization, will be needed to bring the toolset up to full functionality. Alternative approaches to implementing the simulation-based approach to probabilistic induced seismicity hazard analysis are also outlined.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48; AC52-07NA27344
- OSTI ID:
- 1077182
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL--TR-634717
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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