Statistics of past errors as a source of safety factors for current models
- Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
Results of a comparative analysis of actual vs. estimated uncertainty in several data sets derived from natural and social sciences are presented. Data sets include: (i) time trends in the sequential measurements of the same physical quantity; (ii) environmental measurements of uranium in soil, (iii) national population projections; (iv) projections for the United States` energy sector. Probabilities of large deviations from the true values are parametrized by an exponential distribution with the slope determined by the data. One can hedge against unsuspected uncertainties by inflating reported uncertainty range by a default safety factor determined from the relevant historical data sets. This emperical approach can be used in the uncertainty analysis of the low probability/high consequence events, such as risk of global warming.
- Research Organization:
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States). Div. of Safety Issue Resolution; Maryland Univ., College Park, MD (United States); EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 107707
- Report Number(s):
- NUREG/CP--0138; CONF-9310377--; ON: TI95002937
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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