Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions
- MIT
- University of Alaska
- Purdue University
- Marine Biological Laboratory
Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.
- Research Organization:
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- DOE Contract Number:
- FG02-08ER64597
- OSTI ID:
- 1076751
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/ER64597-3
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic
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