Implications of uncertainty on regional CO2 mitigation policies for the U.S. onroad sector based on a high-resolution emissions estimate

Journal Article · Mon Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2013 · Energy Policy, 55:386-395

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.027· OSTI ID:1072876

Mendoza, D; Gurney, Kevin R; Geethakumar, Sarath; Chandrasekaran, Vandhana; Zhou, Yuyu; Razlivanov, I

In this study we present onroad fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimated by the Vulcan Project, an effort quantifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the U.S. in high spatial and temporal resolution. This high-resolution data, aggregated at the state-level and classified in broad road and vehicle type categories, is compared to a commonly used national-average approach. We find that the use of national averages incurs state-level biases for road groupings that are almost twice as large as for vehicle groupings. The uncertainty for all groups exceeds the bias, and both quantities are positively correlated with total state emissions. States with the largest emissions totals are typically similar to one another in terms of emissions fraction distribution across road and vehicle groups, while smaller-emitting states have a wider range of variation in all groups. Errors in reduction estimates as large as ±60% corresponding to ±0.2 MtC are found for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class, such as passenger gas vehicles or heavy diesel trucks. Recommendations are made for reducing CO2 emissions uncertainty by addressing its main drivers: VMT and fuel efficiency uncertainty.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1072876
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-88580; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Energy Policy, 55:386-395, Journal Name: Energy Policy, 55:386-395
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English