Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate

Journal Article · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2011 · Journal of Climate

OSTI ID:1056912

Skinner, Chris B ^[1]; Ashfaq, Moetasim ^[2]; Diffenbaugh, Noah ^[1]

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1. Stanford University
2. ORNL

he persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the 20th century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability, as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. We find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the Western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, we find that the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes that are induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ, as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the mid levels of the troposphere. Our experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
• Sponsoring Organization: SC USDOE - Office of Science (SC)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1056912
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

African monsoon
Climate Change
Earth System Modeling