P50/P90 Analysis for Solar Energy Systems Using the System Advisor Model: Preprint
Conference
·
OSTI ID:1044455
To secure competitive financing for a solar energy generation project, the economic risk associated with interannual solar resource variability must be quantified. One way to quantify this risk is to calculate exceedance probabilities representing the amount of energy expected to be produced by a plant. Many years of solar radiation and metereological data are required to determine these values,often called P50 or P90 values for the level of certainty they represent. This paper describes the two methods implemented in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) to calculate P50 and P90 exceedance probabilities for solar energy projects. The methodology and supporting data sets are applicable to photovoltaic, solar water heating, and concentrating solar power(CSP) systems.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308;
- OSTI ID:
- 1044455
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/CP-6A20-54488
- Conference Information:
- Presented at the 2012 World Renewable Energy Forum. 13-17 May 2012, Denver, Colorado
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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