Intent, Capability and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

Conference · Fri Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 2011

OSTI ID:1034822

Rynes, Amanda; Bjornard, Trond

Currently, proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to act as a means of predicting proliferation potential rather than assessing the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage, rather just establish the presence of, the threat. While the information garnered through these forms of analysis is necessary, it remains incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic and technical capabilities as well as human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Framing this information around how to improve and expand the Regime already in place and establishing where there are gaps in the system allows for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation which incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently then combined to illustrate the full scope of a State's nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.

• Research Organization: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE - NA
• DOE Contract Number: AC07-05ID14517
• OSTI ID: 1034822
• Report Number(s): INL/CON-11-20974
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ECONOMICS
EVALUATION
FOCUSING
HUMAN FACTORS
MANAGEMENT
MITIGATION
PROLIFERATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
international safeguards
nonproliferation
risk assessment