Do forecasters have a future in the utility business?

Technical Report · Mon May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995

OSTI ID:103280

Faruqui, A; Melendy, C ^[1]; Bloom, J ^[2]

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1. Barakat & Chamberlin, Inc., Oakland, CA (United States)
2. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

Electric utilities are faced with the need to rethink their corporate mission and their objectives in light of the changing environment of their industry. They have to decide where they want to go. Government interest in deregulation, the advent of competitive markets as a result of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) and other regulations, volatility in resource costs and requirements, and environment regulations have all combined over the last 20 years to change the nature of the utility planning process. And as the planning process changes, so too does the role of the forecaster. Forecasting is a fundamental part of the electric utility planning process, particularly as utilities implement integrated resource planning (IRP). Integrated resource planning is the process of identifying, selecting, and fine-tuning a set of supply-side and demand-side resource options that meets both forecasted customer requirements and planning constraints at least cost. Under IRP, the forecaster`s involvement in utility planning is expanded. To consider demand-side programs in resource acquisition decisions, planners need information ta the customer level. Program planning and evaluation require baseline information on the system loads that would have been observed in the absence of a program. Forecasting are expected to be able to provide this information. At some utilities, DSM planners have prepared independent end-use assessments that are only weakly linked to the official utility forecast; the planning process at these utilities is ineffective and presents forecasters with an opportunity to expand and redefine their role.

• Research Organization: Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Pacific Consulting Services, Albany, CA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 103280
• Report Number(s): EPRI-TR--105012; CONF-930969--
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FORECASTING
LOAD MANAGEMENT
PLANNING
POWER DEMAND
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT