Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

Conference · Wed Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 2010

OSTI ID:1026973

Weiner, Ruth F

Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 1026973
• Report Number(s): SAND2010-6354C
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
ACCIDENTS
CARGO
PROBABILITY
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SHIELDING
TREES
US DOT