Quantification of margins and uncertainty for risk-informed decision analysis.
QMU stands for 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties'. QMU is a basic framework for consistency in integrating simulation, data, and/or subject matter expertise to provide input into a risk-informed decision-making process. QMU is being applied to a wide range of NNSA stockpile issues, from performance to safety. The implementation of QMU varies with lab and application focus. The Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program develops validated computational simulation tools to be applied in the context of QMU. QMU provides input into a risk-informed decision making process. The completeness aspect of QMU can benefit from the structured methodology and discipline of quantitative risk assessment (QRA)/probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In characterizing uncertainties it is important to pay attention to the distinction between those arising from incomplete knowledge ('epistemic' or systematic), and those arising from device-to-device variation ('aleatory' or random). The national security labs should investigate the utility of a probability of frequency (PoF) approach in presenting uncertainties in the stockpile. A QMU methodology is connected if the interactions between failure modes are included. The design labs should continue to focus attention on quantifying uncertainties that arise from epistemic uncertainties such as poorly-modeled phenomena, numerical errors, coding errors, and systematic uncertainties in experiment. The NNSA and design labs should ensure that the certification plan for any RRW is supported by strong, timely peer review and by an ongoing, transparent QMU-based documentation and analysis in order to permit a confidence level necessary for eventual certification.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 1026947
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2010-6419C; TRN: US201121%%160
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Proposed for presentation at the Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty held September 21-22, 2010 in Bethesda, MD.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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