SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Conference · Sun Jul 17 04:00:00 EDT 2011

OSTI ID:1025088

Dalton, Angela C; Whitney, Paul D; Coles, Garill A; Brothers, Alan J

This paper presents approach for assessing a State’s propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1025088
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-80517; NN2001000
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
BENCHMARKS
DECISION MAKING
PROLIFERATION
SIMULATION
VALIDATION
proliferation
proliferation assessment
bayesian
bayesian network
proliferation propensity