Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1992

Technical Report · Fri Nov 06 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:10190442

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the third quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA, data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• OSTI ID: 10190442
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA--0202(92/4Q); ON: DE93003219; NC: NONE
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290201
292000
294000
296000
COAL
COMPILED DATA
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL OILS
GASOLINE
GLOBAL ASPECTS
JET ENGINE FUELS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND FORECASTING
WEATHER