Historic patterns of CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuels: Implications for stabilization of emissions

Conference · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994

OSTI ID:10185359

Andres, R J; Marland, G

This paper examines the historical record of greenhouse gas emissions since 1950, reviews the prospects for emissions into the future, and projects what would be the short-term outcome if the stated targets of the FCCC were in fact achieved. The examination focuses on the most important of the greenhouse gases, CO{sub 2}. The extensive record of historic CO{sub 2} emissions is explored to ascertain if it is an adequate basis for useful extrapolation into the near future. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption have been documented. Emissions grew at 4.3% per year from 1950 until the time of the 1973 oil crisis. Another disruption in growth followed the oil price increases of 1979. Global total emissions have been increasing steadily since the 1982-1983 minimum and have grown by more than 20% since then. At present, emission Of CO{sub 2} from fossil fuel burning is dominated by a few countries: the U.S., the former Soviet Union, China, the developed countries of Europe and Japan. Only 20 countries emit 84% of emissions from all countries. However, rates of growth in many of the developed countries are now very low. In contrast, energy use has grown rapidly over the last 20 years in some of the large, developing economies. Emissions from fossil fuel consumption are now nearly 4 times those from land use change and are the primary cause of measured increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2} has led to rising concern about the possibility of impending changes in the global climate system. In an effort to limit or mitigate potential negative effects of global climate change, 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992. The FCCC asks all countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions setting non-binding targets.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States); Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, TN (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400; AC05-76OR00033
• OSTI ID: 10185359
• Report Number(s): CONF-940632--25; ON: DE95000489
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540120
AIR POLLUTION MONITORING
CARBON DIOXIDE
CHEMICALS MONITORING AND TRANSPORT
COMBUSTION
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
FOSSIL FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GREENHOUSE GASES
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
STABILIZATION