MARKAL-MACRO: An overview

Technical Report · Thu Nov 12 00:00:00 EST 1992

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/10170076· OSTI ID:10170076

Hamilton, L D; Goldstein, G A; Lee, J; Marcuse, W; Morris, S C ^[1]; Manne, A S ^[2]; Wene, C O ^[1]

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1. Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (US)
2. Stanford Univ., CA (US)

MARKAL-MACRO is an experiment in model linkage. This new tool is intended as an improvement over existing methods for energy policy assessment. It is designed specifically for estimating the costs and analyzing alternative technologies and policies proposed for reducing environmental risks such as global climate change or regional air pollution. The greenhouse gas debate illustrates the usefulness of linked energy-economy models. A central issue is the coupling between economic growth, the level of energy demands, and the evolution of an energy system to supply these demands. The debate is often connected with alternative modeling approaches. The competing philosophies may be labeled {open_quotes}top-down macroeconomic{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}bottom-up engineering{close_quotes} perspectives. Do macroeconomic models, with their descriptions of effects within the total economy but few technical details on the energy system, tend to overestimate future energy demands? Conversely, do engineering models, ignoring feedbacks to the general economy and non-technical market factors but containing rich descriptions of technology options, tend to take too optimistic a view of conservation and the use of renewable energy sources? Or is the principal difference that the engineering models ignore new sources of energy demands, and that the macroeconomic models ignore saturation effects for old categories of demands? An efficient modeling tool must have the scope and detail to match the width and depth of the policy problem being analyzed. In order to respond to major environmental risks (e.g., the possibility of global climate changes), there must be long-range, fundamental changes in the energy system. For an analysis of these changes and an understanding of their nature, the modeling tool must be able to capture the complex network of relations within the energy system, as well as the opportunities of new or improved technologies.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-76CH00016
• OSTI ID: 10170076
• Report Number(s): BNL-48377; ON: DE93016554; TRN: 93:002166
• Resource Relation: Other Information: PBD: 12 Nov 1992
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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29 ENERGY PLANNING
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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
CLIMATIC CHANGE
ENERGY EXPENSES
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY MODELS
AIR POLLUTION
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ENVIRONMENT, HEALTH, AND SAFETY
CHEMICALS MONITORING AND TRANSPORT