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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Probabilistic methods in forecasting hourly loads. Final report

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:10159509
; ; ;  [1]
  1. Quantitative Economic Research, Inc., San Diego, CA (United States)
EPRI has investigated the use of independent hourly statistical models for short-term load and probabilistic forecasting. Model outcomes compared favorably with observed and predicted loads. The models performed satisfactorily in generating short-run forecasts of system loads in tightly controlled experiments against a wide range of altemative models and methodologies. In addition to load forecasting, the models also forecast the probability that the predicted load would exceed a prespecified level at each hour of the day. Changes in operational practices and personnel turnover are creating a situation in which new forecasting methods are needed. This report demonstrated that statistical models can be developed to reliably predict hourly loads and form probabilities of extreme events.
Research Organization:
Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Quantitative Economic Research, Inc., San Diego, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
OSTI ID:
10159509
Report Number(s):
EPRI-TR--101902; ON: UN93014222
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English