[Global warming and the running average sunspot number]

Technical Report · Sun May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1994

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/10148912· OSTI ID:10148912

Fernau, M E

It has been reported in your pages that the Bush administration`s views and actions regarding how or whether to react to possible global warming due to greenhouse gases have been influenced by the so-called Marshall report. This unrefereed report, released by the George C. Marshall Institute, had as its principal conclusion the finding that the 0.5{degree} C global warming of the last century was mostly due to solar variability and, thus, the greenhouse warming of the 21st century can be expected to be a relatively small l{degree} C or so. The authors support this finding by comparing the 33-year running average sunspot number with the trend in annual average global temperature and noting the parallel between the two, especially during the 1940s--1960s when the temperature trend was downward. Subsequent letters to Science debated the merits of this and other conclusions contained in the report. I now present additional technical evidence which shows that, quite aside from the question of whether the data presented in the report support its conclusions, the actual figure on which the above conclusion is based is in error.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: W-31109-ENG-38
• OSTI ID: 10148912
• Report Number(s): ANL/EAIS/PP--71792; ON: DE94011492
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
BASIC STUDIES
EVALUATION
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
INFORMATION VALIDATION
SOLAR FLUX
SUNSPOTS