Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

Conference · Mon Nov 09 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:10124516

Dale, V H; Southworth, F; O`Neill, R V; Rosen, A

Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist`s choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 10124516
• Report Number(s): CONF-9108232--1; ON: DE93005776
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540210
540250
BASIC STUDIES
BRAZIL
CARBON DIOXIDE
CLIMATE MODELS
DEFORESTATION
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
LAND USE
SIMULATION
SITE RESOURCE AND USE STUDIES
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS