The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report
- Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
- North Carolina Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)
- Nature Conservancy, Minneapolis, MN (United States). Midwestern heritage Task Force
To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areas outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States); North Carolina Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Nature Conservancy, Minneapolis, MN (United States). Midwestern heritage Task Force
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 10111419
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR-103330; ON: UN94004733
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Nov 1993
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Climate Effects on Plant Range Distributions and Community Structure of Pacific Northwest Prairies
Vascular flora of the Rocky Flats area, Jefferson County, Colorado, USA