Quantifying regional changes in terrestrial carbon storage by extrapolation from local ecosystem models

Conference · Tue Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1991

OSTI ID:10110874

King, A W

A general procedure for quantifying regional carbon dynamics by spatial extrapolation of local ecosystem models is presented Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the expected value of one or more local models, explicitly integrating the spatial heterogeneity of variables that influence ecosystem carbon flux and storage. These variables are described by empirically derived probability distributions that are input to the Monte Carlo process. The procedure provides large-scale regional estimates based explicitly on information and understanding acquired at smaller and more accessible scales.Results are presented from an earlier application to seasonal atmosphere-biosphere CO{sub 2} exchange for circumpolar ``subarctic`` latitudes (64{degree}N-90{degree}N). Results suggest that, under certain climatic conditions, these high northern ecosystems could collectively release 0.2 Gt of carbon per year to the atmosphere. I interpret these results with respect to questions about global biospheric sinks for atmospheric CO{sub 2} .

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 10110874
• Report Number(s): CONF-9109334--1; ON: DE93003019
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540210
BASIC STUDIES
CARBON CYCLE
CARBON DIOXIDE
CORRELATIONS
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS